Key expectations from hospitals and healthcare space | Q3FY24 earnings..
Summary
When it comes to diagnostic companies, one should expect revenue to be driven by volumes. However, one should watch for the festive season to impact the testing numbers.
In the healthcare space, hospitals are expected to report mid-teen growth driven by the average revenue per occupied bed (ARPOB), aided by an improved payor and case mix.
Occupancies, however, could be sluggish for hospitals due to festival season and children’s holidays. Now analysts expect one to two more quarters of growth for hospitals till the high base starts to probably impact growth.
Stock specific – Apollo Hospitals could report as much as over 50% year-on-year growth in profit led by lower losses in Apollo HealthCo. Operational losses are expected to reduce to as much as around ₹10 crore versus ₹38.7 crore according to some analysts for Apollo HealthCo.
The company saw minimal bed addition, which is likely to keep the hospital revenue growth restricted this quarter and the EBITDA growth for the hospital business to around 2-3%.
Medanta Global Health could see occupancies reduced by around 200 to 300 basis points (bps) quarter on quarter due to the festive season. ARPOBs could rise as much as 9% year-on-year. Analysts will be watching for commentary on increased competition in the Indore market for Medanta in particular.
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For Max Health, the Street is expecting double-digit growth of around 14% YoY with stable average revenue per occupied bed sequentially. When it comes to diagnostic companies, one should expect revenue to be driven by volumes. However, one should watch for the festive season to impact the testing numbers.
Dr Lal Pathlabs is expected to report around a 15% growth led by a low base, Metropolis has indicated witnessing an early double-digit growth in terms of revenue for its core business of around 12% YoY.
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Focus on key segments such as preventive testing should aid overall numbers. For example, Jaanch and Arogyam from Thyrocare and premium and specialised testing for Metropolis were the fastest-growing segments for the company in Q2.
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