Category: Currency

TestApp Arvind Kejriwal withdraws SC petition against ED arrest, will seek relief before PMLA court

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Test- A Decade of PoSH Laws — hits, misses, and key learnings

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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<p><span style=”font-weight: 400;”>Bhanwari Devi’s brutal gang rape arising out of and during the course of her employment, and the subsequent PIL that was filed, are possibly amongst the seminal moments in the modern history of the women’s movement. In terms of impact, while we are only at the 10 year mark of the Prevention of Sexual Harrassment Act (PoSH Law) and 26 years post the <a href=”https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vishakha_and_others_v_State_of_Rajasthan”>Vishaka judgement</a>, this could be comparable to the successful anti-Sati campaign of <a href=”https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raja_Ram_Mohan_Roy”>Dr Raja Ram Mohan Roy.  </a></span></p><p><span style=”font-weight: 400;”>So what has this law really done? The PoSH Law has set up a mechanism that allows women to file complaints of sexual harassment with a committee (the Internal Committee or “the IC”) that comprises employees and an external member. Armed with the powers of a civil court, the Parliament has effectively replaced the ordinary civil court with the IC. </span></p><p><span style=”font-weight: 400;”>Not too many women were comfortable approaching the civil court with instances of sexual harassment to seek civil redressal, so the PoSH law and the redressal mechanism was a welcome relief for many women employees. The other key aspect is that the law mandates training and sensitisation of the IC and the workforce. After a slow start, corporates have now taken this seriously and, on an annual basis, make it a point to conduct training and workshops.</span></p><p><span style=”font-weight: 400;”>Let’s take a quick look at what’s worked and what we could possibly do better.</span></p><p><strong>Hits</strong> <ol> <li style=”font-weight: 400;” aria-level=”1″><span style=”font-weight: 400;”>1. <strong>Increased awareness of sexual harassment:</strong> The PoSH law has played a significant role in raising awareness of sexual harassment in the workplace. This has led to a greater understanding of what constitutes sexual harassment and the consequences of engaging in such behavior. Concepts like consent and quid pro quo are now being seriously discussed and debated across offices in our country.</span></li> </ol> <ol> <li style=”font-weight: 400;” aria-level=”1″><span style=”font-weight: 400;”>2. <strong>Proactiveness of courts:</strong> The Supreme Court (SC), in particular, has been proactive in interpreting the law and issuing directives, particularly in instances where there has been sluggishness in implementing the law or providing clarity. This has ensured that corporates implement the law.  </span></li> </ol> <ol> <li style=”font-weight: 400;” aria-level=”1″><span style=”font-weight: 400;”>3. <strong>Discreet reporting mechanisms:</strong> One of the greatest benefits of the PoSH law is that it has established clear, accessible and discreet reporting mechanisms for those aggrieved of sexual harassment. This has made it easier for the aggrieved  to come forward and seek redressal.</span></li> </ol> <ol> <li style=”font-weight: 400;” aria-level=”1″><span style=”font-weight: 400;”>4. <strong>Strict penalties for perpetrators and the organisations:</strong> The law has imposed strict penalties for perpetrators of sexual harassment. This has acted as a deterrent and has helped to create a safer workplace for all. </span></li> </ol> <strong>Misses</strong> <ol> <li style=”font-weight: 400;” aria-level=”1″><span style=”font-weight: 400;”>1. <strong>Challenges in implementation:</strong>  While large and mid-size corporates have been fairly quick to implement the law in letter and spirit, quite a few smaller organisations have been tardy.  Cost has been touted as the primary reason for only paying lip service to implementation of the law. This has made it much tougher for the aggrieved to access justice. </span></li> <li style=”font-weight: 400;” aria-level=”1″><span style=”font-weight: 400;”>2. <strong>Lack of clarity in certain provisions:</strong> Despite the SC’s proactiveness some of the provisions of the PoSH Act require greater clarity. For example, is payment of compensation by the Respondent mandatory?, should employers sit on ICs?, the status of internal appellate bodies, are just a few that come to mind.  Some states are yet to even appoint appellate authorities, thereby delaying justice for both complainant and respondent, whoever wants to take up the matter on appeal from the IC’s recommendation.</span></li> <li style=”font-weight: 400;” aria-level=”1″><span style=”font-weight: 400;”>3. <strong>Delay in appointing District Officers:</strong>  Even a decade after the passing of the PoSH Law, District Officers haven’t been appointed in all Districts, therefore, there is a lack of pressure/follow up on entities to comply with the Act. </span></li> <li style=”font-weight: 400;” aria-level=”1″><span style=”font-weight: 400;”>4. <strong>Inadequate protection for marginalised groups:</strong> Marginalised groups, such as women from lower socioeconomic backgrounds, migrant workers and LGBTQ+ individuals, may face additional barriers in accessing justice under the law. This is due to factors such as lack of awareness, language barriers and fear of retaliation. </span></li> </ol> <strong>Key Learnings</strong> <ol> <li style=”font-weight: 400;” aria-level=”1″><span style=”font-weight: 400;”>1. It is increasingly clear that the mandate of the Law asking for continuous training and sensitisation has worked very well.  Now the ball is in the court of the government to ensure that this is consistently monitored by the District Officer and non-compliant organisations are penalised.  </span></li> </ol> <ol> <li style=”font-weight: 400;” aria-level=”1″><span style=”font-weight: 400;”>2. There are still areas of the PoSH Law that require greater clarity in terms of implementation of the Law. The Government needs to hold consultations with the different stakeholders, and make suitable amendments to the Law and the Rules.  </span></li> </ol> <ol> <li style=”font-weight: 400;” aria-level=”1″><span style=”font-weight: 400;”>3. Greater thought needs to be given to thinking through strategies to address the specific challenges faced by marginalised groups in accessing justice under the law. This may include targeted outreach, translation services and culturally sensitive training programs.  </span></li> </ol> <strong>Conclusion</strong></p><p><span style=”font-weight: 400;”>It is clear that the PoSH Law has made significant strides in enabling aggrieved women to access the levers of justice. However, as with all laws, the PoSH Law also needs to keep pace with the constantly evolving corporate landscape. The Government needs to review and make suitable amendments to ensure that there is consistency and uniformity in the implementation of the Law. </span></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>—<em>The author, Antony Alex, is Founder &amp; CEO of Rainmaker, India’s leading culture and compliance learning solutions company. The views expressed are personal. </em></p>

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

US Dollar stages biggest rally since March as global risks pile up

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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The US dollar staged its biggest rally in 10 months as traders questioned the scale of Federal Reserve rate cuts priced into markets and geopolitical tensions boosted demand for the haven currency.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.8% on Tuesday, its strongest advance since March 2023, as the dollar strengthened against every one of the world’s major currencies. The gauge closed at its highest level since December 13.

The dollar’s rise is defying widespread expectations that it would continue to drift lower this year on speculation that the Fed will start easing monetary policy as soon as March, reducing the interest-rate gap that once sent investors flocking to the US.

But the outlook is being clouded by concern that traders have overestimated how much policymakers will ease. At the same time, escalating conflict in the Red Sea shipping corridor and persistent weakness in China’s economy have heightened interest in the dollar as a temporary hideout from uncertainty.

“The market has been and remains too optimistic on Fed rate cuts,” said Paresh Upadhyaya, director of fixed income and currency strategy at Amundi Asset Management. “If you throw in any bouts of risk aversion triggered by geopolitical risk or political uncertainty, then that will help boost the USD via its safe haven status.”

Fed Governor Christopher Waller underscored the concerns about the central bank’s path on Tuesday, when he emphasized that policymakers should be methodical and careful with the pace of easing. His comments helped to push up Treasury yields, with those on benchmark 10-year notes rising as much as 14 basis points to a high of 4.08%.

The attacks in the Red Sea shipping lanes have raised fears of further disruption to global trade and supply chains that could fan inflation pressures. Houthi militants struck a second commercial ship in the span of a day, while Shell Plc paused the transit of oil tankers through the area.

At the same time, stimulus plans considered by Chinese officials are highlighting the difficulties that the world’s second-largest economy has faced since emerging from Covid lockdowns.

“I’m not surprised that some of that optimism has waned during the beginning of the new year,” said Amanda Sundstrom, a fixed income and foreign-exchange strategist at SEB AB in Stockholm. “There’s going to be some set-backs even if we still believe that we’re heading in the right direction.”

There are some signs that the dollar’s recent strength isn’t expected to fade soon, however. While options traders are cautious when it comes to further strength in the near-term, over a one-month horizon, risk reversals show the most bullish sentiment toward the dollar in a month, largely because of expected weakness in China’s currency.

On Tuesday, the euro fell to a one month-low of $1.0863 while the yen slumped to its weakest level in almost six weeks, at around 147 to the dollar. The Australian dollar and some Scandinavian currencies — typically barometers of global risk sentiment — fell over 1%.

Supporting the bullish dollar view is a growing number of investors and analysts who say swap markets are too aggressively priced for rate cuts from major central banks this year.

Traders have consistently overestimated how hawkish the Fed would be since the end of the pandemic. And European Central Bank Governing Council member Robert Holzmann said in an interview on Monday that threats stemming from lingering inflation and geopolitical risks will prevent the European Central Bank from lowering interest rates this year.

“The tone of central bankers this morning is one of hesitancy — especially what’s coming from the ECB” as rising freight rates reignite fears of supply-chain disruptions amid woes in both Red Sea and Panama Canal, said Thierry Wizman, director of global currencies and an interest-rate strategist at Macquarie Futures. “That’s why they are sounding less dovish.”

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

US Dollar begins 2024 with best day since March on Fed doubt

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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The US dollar kicked off the new year with its biggest daily jump since March as traders pared back bets on the scale of the Federal Reserve’s 2024 interest-rate reductions.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed higher by more than 0.7% on Tuesday as Treasuries and US stocks dropped, before holding steady in Asia trading Wednesday. It was the greenback’s biggest one-day advance since the wake of regional banking turmoil more than nine months ago.

Such a euphoric start to 2024 comes after a rocky path last year, when the dollar’s performance was largely driven by speculation surrounding when — and by how much — major central banks would cut their key policy rates. The currency fell 2.7% last year, the worst annual performance since the Covid-19 pandemic shocked the world in 2020.

“The Fed expectations are still all over the map,” Brad Bechtel, global head of foreign exchange at Jefferies. “We have to see how it plays out the next few days.”

Traders are already looking ahead to Wednesday’s release of minutes from the December Fed meeting, which will offer detail on a gathering at which officials signaled an end to their aggressive campaign of interest-rate increases. An array of labor-market data due later this week is forecast to highlight a labor market that remains resilient while gradually cooling.

The dollar gained against every Asian emerging-market peer on Wednesday. The South Korean won, Malaysian ringgit and Thai baht were amongst the biggest losers against the greenback.

While most of 2023’s drop in the dollar came as Wall Street increased bets on an easing cycle, traders are now reconsidering the monetary path ahead. While central banks have indicated that they’ve likely delivered the final hikes of this cycle, they will also be reluctant to give up the fight against inflation too soon.

“Markets, with the fledgling year, haven’t entirely decided what their base case is,” Helen Given, an FX spot trader at Monex USA. “We still don’t believe the Fed will be cutting rates as soon as March, and the minutes tomorrow are likely to prove us to be more correct than not.”

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

The US Dollar is set for its worst year since 2020

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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The US dollar is poised for its worst year since the onset of the pandemic as Wall Street bets the Federal Reserve is set to lower interest-rates after safely reining in prices.

After being whipsawed by false starts calling for the end of the Fed’s rate hiking regime, a Bloomberg gauge of the greenback is down nearly 3% since January in the steepest annual drop for the US currency since 2020.

Much of the decline materialized in the fourth quarter on growing wagers that the Fed will sharply loosen policy next year as the US economy slows. That dents the dollar’s appeal as other central banks may keep their rates higher for longer.

Swaps traders are now factoring in Fed rate cuts of at least 150 basis points with the first cut coming as soon as March. That’s up from less than 100 basis points in mid-November and double what policymakers penciled in at their most recent meeting. Among speculative traders, dollar positioning has become all the more bearish since the Fed’s December meeting.

“Markets are positioned for this ‘Goldilocks’ scenario where the Fed will cut rates enough to stimulate the economy without reigniting inflation pressures,” said Amanda Sunstrom, a fixed income and FX strategist at SEB AB in Stockholm. “That’s driving the dollar performance.”

Sunstrom added that the softer dollar is likely to persist in 2024 as US data weakens, but not enough to spur a risk-off bid for haven assets like the greenback.

Still, the dollar’s sharp losses of late suggest room for at least a temporary rebound. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index’s 14-day relative strength recently fell below 30, a signal to some that the greenback is now “oversold” and primed for a reversal.

On Thursday, Bloomberg’s dollar gauge edged higher for the first session in five as global bonds pared a recent run of gains. The yen and franc nonetheless advanced against the dollar, rallying more than 1% intraday against the greenback in thin, year-end trading.

The dollar’s fall stands in contrast to the pound, which is set for its best year since 2017, and the franc, on pace for its strongest annual performance since 2010.

Sterling has rallied more than 5% against the dollar so far in 2023, the best run since the British currency was whipsawed by a series of Brexit votes six years ago. In Switzerland, the franc has risen to record, trade-weighted highs as traders increasingly see the Swiss National Bank holding policy tighter relative to its counterparts, even after a relatively dovish SNB meeting on Dec. 14.

“If I had to pick a central bank most likely to intervene to push down their currency next year it would be the SNB,” said Geoffrey Yu, a currency and macro strategist at BNY Mellon in London. As for the pound “I won’t chase it aggressively until we get BOE clarity.”

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Rupee rises 8 paise to 83.26 against US dollar in early trade

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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The rupee appreciated 8 paise to 83.26 against the US dollar on Thursday, tracking a weak American currency against major overseas rivals and positive cues from domestic equity markets.

According to forex traders, the Indian currency strengthened on the back of massive equity buying by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs). However, volatility in crude oil prices resisted a sharp gain in the Indian currency.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the domestic currency opened at 83.33 and gained further to 83.26 against greenback, registering a rise of 8 paise from its previous close. On Wednesday, the domestic currency settled at 83.34 against the dollar.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading lower by 0.17 per cent at 100.48 on Thursday. Global oil price benchmark Brent crude inched up 0.08 per cent to USD 79.71 per barrel.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 221.43 points, or 0.31 per cent, higher at 72,259.86. The broader NSE Nifty rose 50.80 points or 0.23 per cent to 21,705.55. FIIs bought equities worth Rs 2,926.05 crore on Wednesday, according to exchange data.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Year Ender 2023 | The year that was for the Indian rupee

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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In the year 2023, the Indian rupee displayed resilience compared to the previous year when its performance was at a nine-year low. The rupee opened at 82.66 against the US dollar on the first trading day of 2023. On December 27, it at 83.35 versus the greenback, a depreciation of 0.8%. In 2022, the rupee slumped more than 11%, marking the currency’s worst performance since 2013.

Market expert Sugandha Sachdeva attributes this resilience to the sustained inflow of foreign funds, positive fundamentals of the domestic economy and ebbing of inflationary pressures. She, however, notes that the dollar index rebounded, and strong demand for the greenback steered the rupee towards record lows.

The rupee hit an all-time low of 83.36 against the US dollar on Friday, November 24. It breached the 80 mark against the US dollar for the first time on July 19, 2022, and has since hit a series of lows.

“Geopolitical tensions amid the conflict between Israel and Hamas favoured the safety of the greenback, while a seasonal increase in import demand during the festive season posed a substantial headwind for the rupee,” Sachdeva said.

During the first half of 2023, the rupee traded within a broad range of 81.60-83.05. “The RBI was observed accumulating reserves near the bottom of the range and absorbing flows. Simultaneously, when the rupee was depreciating towards 82.80-83 levels, the RBI intervened to curb the sudden fall,” explains Amit Pabari of CR Forex.

Global factors like the banking crisis in March, and the Fed rate hike impacted the currency. However, Pabari, says despite these, the rupee’s momentum remained relatively stable. “But due to narrowing the interest rate gap, premiums fell to nearly a 12-year low,” he adds.

During the second half of the year, the daily 14-period average true range hit a low of 13 paise, a level not seen since 2004. During this period, Fitch’s US credit downgrade and geopolitical tensions between Israel and Palestine were the major factors affecting the US dollar — however, the momentum in the rupee was limited.

The dollar index — which measures the value of the greenback against a basket of six peers — moved in the range of 99 to 108 in the year, and has fallen 2.7% in one year. The value of the US dollar against a basket of six peers is inversely proportional to the value of the rupee. That is, if the value of the greenback rises, the value of the rupee depreciates and vice versa.

Domestically, the inflation briefly exceeded the Reserve Bank of India’s range but was swiftly curbed within a couple of months, reaching multi-month lows. Both the manufacturing and services PMIs outperformed global PMIs.

Outlook for 2024

Geopolitical risks are expected to continue influencing the trajectory of emerging market currencies, including the Indian rupee, says Sachdeva. However, she notes that the overall trend for the rupee will be closely tied to the US policy rate. “A significant cushion for the rupee is the expectation that the US central bank will commence interest rate cuts by mid-2024, potentially leading to a substantial weakening of the dollar.”

Pabari projects the DXY, currently trading near 104, to likely decline towards 100 and below in 2024. “A decrease in the dollar’s value could positively affect the rupee, and we anticipate that this trend will likely manifest in the local currency next year,” he says.

According to Sachdeva, overseas investors may increase their exposure to India, driven by strong macroeconomic fundamentals and the projection as one of the fastest-growing economies of 2024. “Central bank interventions would also play a crucial role in limiting volatility in the currency,” she says.

Another factor that is going to affect the Indian currency is the general elections scheduled next year. Pabari notes that historically, general elections in India, have triggered significant inflows.

“Recent state election outcomes, indicating victories for the Bhartiya Janta Pary in three major states, have raised expectations for the party’s potential third consecutive win in the general election. Such an outcome might attract flows, mitigating policy shift risks and potentially bolstering the rupee,” he says.

“Domestic fundamentals seem robust, and the expectation of a global rate cut favours the rupee. Consequently, there is a higher likelihood that the rupee may not depreciate toward the 83.50-84 zone but instead appreciate toward 82.50-82 over the next 3-5 months. Furthermore, we believe that the currency is likely to continue trading in the same range throughout 2024,” Pabari concludes.

Sachdeva says the inclusion of Indian bonds in the JP Morgan bond index is projected to generate passive inflows of around $30 billion, starting June 2024, adding to the positive outlook for the Indian rupee. “The trend of crude oil prices, however, remains a wildcard, and any significant upside beyond $100 a barrel could negatively impact the exchange rate,” she notes.

Sachdeva adds that taking into consideration the positive and negative factors, a mild depreciation is projected for the domestic currency.” Any sustained move beyond the 83.50 mark could make it vulnerable to a slide toward the 84.80-85 mark. On the contrary, the 81.50 level remains a crucial barrier, and a potential move beyond it would bring in upside for the Indian rupee towards the 79 mark.”

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow