Cement Q3FY24 outlook: What experts anticipate on demand and pricing
KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)
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Summary
Navin Sahadeo, an analyst at ICICI Securities, expects a combination of price hikes, cost declines, and anticipated operating leverage benefits to contribute to an estimated earnings per tonne rise of about 15% to 17% quarter on quarter (QoQ) or around 30-35% year-on-year (YoY).
There are some key factors at play for cement companies in the third quarter of the current financial year 2024. There has been a decline in costs, and the October-December quarterly earnings will come on a low base on a year-on-year (YoY) basis.
Cement prices were raised in the northern, southern and western India at the start of the quarter while in the eastern parts, the price hikes were done in September 2023. A part of these prices increases were reversed in November due to lower demand during festivals, and a labor shortage.
The third quarter will also see the benefits of the fall in energy prices, resulting in lower costs and improved earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA). In fact, the costs are expected to be the lowest in seven quarters.
Jefferies estimates that companies in the cement universe could report a 50% YoY growth in EBITDA, with the per tonne EBITDA increasing to four digits. That’s an increase of more than ₹1,000 after nearly eight quarters.
On a regional basis, north-based companies are likely to outperform. That’s going to be driven by higher YoY growth, both in volumes as well as in prices.
After double-digit growth in the first two quarters of the year, expectations are that the cement industry demand will slow down to mid-single digits in the third quarter three of FY24. The state elections, the festival season, and bad weather in South India impacted the construction activity during the past quarter.
Ultratech also reported a 5% growth in India volumes in quarter three. And that’s likely to be in line with industry growth unlike what was seen in the previous few quarters when they led industry growth and in fact, outperformed in the previous quarters as well.
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Jefferies expects ACC and Ambuja to report higher EBITDA growth due to a low base and Shree Cement may benefit from higher pricing in north India.
From the midcap space, JK Cement and Birla Corp could outperform on the growth front.
In a recent analysis of the cement industry on CNBC-TV18, Navin Sahadeo, an analyst at ICICI Securities, pointed out that a combination of price hikes, cost declines, and anticipated operating leverage benefits could contribute to an estimated EBITDA per tonne rise of about 15% to 17% quarter on quarter (QoQ) or around 30-35% year on year (YoY).
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However, Sahadeo’s optimistic view on the sector seems to be at odds with recent market sentiments. He expressed skepticism about the industry’s actual growth, stating, “If UltraTech Cement has posted a 5% kind of growth YoY, I would like to believe the industry is more in the 3-4% range. So clearly demand has seen a knock because the first half we are growing at 11.5-12%.”
Contrary to Sahadeo’s perspective, Goldman Sachs has downgraded its position on the cement sector from overweight to neutral. In a recent interview with CNBC-TV18, Sunil Koul, Equity Strategist-APAC at Goldman Sachs, shed light on the rationale behind the decision. Koul acknowledged the longer-term potential of the cement industry, citing its connection to both real estate recovery and infrastructure. However, he noted that recent stock surges, exceeding 15%, and anticipated muted volumes over the next couple of quarters led to the downgrade.
“We do think that the absolute upside on a more tactical basis is not going to be there, so that is why we neutralized it,” explained Koul, emphasizing the cautious stance taken by Goldman Sachs in response to the industry’s recent developments.
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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow